Will any of Minnesota’s eight U.S. House of Representatives races be a factor in determining which party controls Congress come January? Not if donors have anything to say about it.
Incumbent congressional candidates across Minnesota held serve when it came to fundraising during the months of July, August and September, according to campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission on Oct. 15.
The latest analysis from the Cook Political Report has Republican candidates across the nation capturing 206 seats in the House of Representatives, compared to 202 for Democrat candidates, with 27 races considered a “toss-up” based on recent polling numbers. None of Minnesota’s eight districts are included in Cook’s “toss-up” category.
While all four of the congressional districts held by Republicans—MN-CD1, MN-CD6, MN-CD7 and MN-CD8—are considered “safe” seats, three of the four seats held by DFLers are considered “safe.”
The outlier is the Second Congressional District, where three-term DFL incumbent Angie Craig had an 8-point lead over Republican challenger Joe Teirab in a mid-October survey KSTP-TV conducted sampling likely voters across the south suburban district that sprawls from Woodbury in the east to Shakopee in the west, and then down to several Greater Minnesota cities and townships just beyond the south metro.
In that closely-watched race, Craig reported she raised $2 million during the third quarter of 2024. Teirab, a former federal prosecutor and military veteran, raised $1.2 million. But Craig maintains her biggest advantage in her reported $2.4 million cash on hand, compared to Teirab’s $871,000.
The closest fundraising race among opponents during the third quarter came in Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District.
Three-term Republican incumbent Rep. Pete Stauber raised $415,000, while his DFL challenger, former legislator Jennifer Schultz netted $398,000. But Stauber, a former police officer, county commissioner and college hockey player has more than four times the amount of reported cash on hand than Schultz, at $1.1 million to $288,000. Stauber defeated Schultz in 2022 by 15 points in a northeast Minnesota district that has shifted decidedly to Republicans over the last decade.
The next closest fundraising competition down the stretch is in the First Congressional District, where first-term incumbent Republican Brad Finstad nearly doubled his third quarter fundraising, $320,000, over Democrat challenger Rachel Bohman, $172,000. Finstad, a farmer from New Ulm, reported $718,000 in cash on hand, compared to Bohman’s $153,000 reported cash on hand.
What might come as a surprise to some, Dalia Al-Aqidi, a Republican longshot candidate in Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District, reported raising $730,000 during the third quarter, as her Democrat opponent, incumbent Ilhan Omar, raised $1.4 million during the same period. Omar is expected to win the district easily. In 2022 she defeated her GOP opponent by 50 points. The three-term incumbent spent most of her campaign fundraiser capital to win a DFL primary in August, and reported $513,000 in cash on hand. Al-Aqidi reported $124,000 cash on hand.
In Minnesota’s Third Congressional District, state Sen. Kelly Morrison is hoping to replace her longtime friend, Dean Phillips, and keep the west metro seat in Democrat hands. Morrison raised $777,000 during the third quarter, and has $1.1 million in cash on hand, according to the report she filed Oct. 15. Her Republican opponent, retired judge Tad Jude, raised $187,000 during the same period and reported he has $59,000 in cash on hand. The Third District had been held by Republicans for several decades, until Phillips defeated Erik Paulsen in 2018. Morrison has had a decided cash advantage in her campaign, which she launched one year ago when Phillips announced he would attempt to challenge President Joe Biden in a quixotic presidential primary campaign.
In Minnesota’s Sixth Congressional District, Republican incumbent Tom Emmer has raised $1.1 million over the last three months, and reported having $2.6 million in cash on hand. His opponent, Jeanne Hendricks, reported raising just $33,000 and had $9,000 cash on hand in a campaign rematch with Emmer. The third-ranking Republican in the U.S. House defeated Hendricks by 25 points in 2022.
In Minnesota’s Fourth Congressional District, Betty McCollum has become a mainstay. The progressive Democrat has won 12 terms in the district that mostly encompasses St. Paul and a few surrounding suburbs. She raised $284,000 and entered the final weeks of her rematch with May Lor Xiong, with a reported $722,000 in cash on hand. Republican Lor Xiong reported raising $37,000 and having $7,000 in cash on hand. McCollum is the most senior member of Minnesota’s congressional delegation, and has only won by fewer than 20 points once, that was her first campaign in 2000, when she defeated Republican Linda Runbeck by 18 points.
In Minnesota’s Seventh Congressional District, Republican incumbent Michelle Fischbach outraised her DFL opponent A.J. Peters $410,000 to $8,000 during the third quarter. Fischbach reported having $443,000 in cash on hand, compared to Peters’ $7,000. The Seventh District had long been held by moderate Democrat Colin Peterson, but Fischbach knocked off Peterson by 13 points in 2020, and then won re-election by nearly 40 points in 2022.
Hank Long
Hank Long is a journalism and communications professional whose writing career includes coverage of the Minnesota legislature, city and county governments and the commercial real estate industry. Hank received his undergraduate degree at the University of Minnesota, where he studied journalism, and his law degree at the University of St. Thomas. The Minnesota native lives in the Twin Cities with his wife and four children. His dream is to be around when the Vikings win the Super Bowl.
