Minnesota’s Models Predict A COVID-19 Death Rate Higher Than Any Country

The models Gov. Walz has used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on Minnesota predict that the state will suffer 7x as many deaths per 100,000 residents as Italy.

The mathematical models that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has used to guide his response to the coronavirus predict that his state will experience more virus-related deaths per capita than any country on Earth.

Minnesota State House Republican Leader Kurt Daudt says that when he was briefed on the models his state has used to guide its coronavirus response, the Department of Health (MDH) refused to show their predicted death rates plotted over time. However, journalist David Montgomery of MPR took matters into his own hands recently, and used the most current predictions made by the University of Minnesota and MDH to create a visualization that shows how many Minnesotans the Walz administration believes will die of coronavirus.

The most current version of the model predicts a peak somewhere around 550-600 deaths per day, according to MPR.

Predictions made by the third and most recent version of the state’s model are shown here, visualized by MPR’s Montgomery.

This is a significantly higher death rate adjusted for population that even that which was endured by Italy, which saw a peak morality rate of around 1.4 people per 100,000, as Daudt points out.

Daudt’s calculations appear to be accurate according to statistics reported by Worldometer. Additionally, numbers reported by Statista show how Minnesota’s models predicts a higher peak death rate per 100,000 residents than even that which was seen in Belgium, the nation that has suffered the highest death rate per capita of anywhere in the world.

The last version of Minnesota’s models issued even more dire predictions than the current ones. Version two of the models said that a least contained senario without the governor’s sweeping stay at home orders could have resulted in 1,500 deaths per day at its peak. Even the “baseline” scenario predicted by this model foretells about 1,000 deaths per day at its high point, according to MPR.

The models predicts that around 1,000 Minnesotans would die of COVID-19 in a single day if Walz had not enacted his emergency executive orders.

By last model’s numbers, Minnesota could have sustained a 17.7 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to Daudt. This would make Minnesota over 170% more deadly than Italy.

842 people have died of COVID-19 in Minnesota as of May 22, per the MDH. This represents .015% of the overall state population. Presently, there has been no clear peak time period for deaths like there has been in other countries.

This graph, screenshotted from the MDH website, displays the number of COVID-19 related deaths per day in Minnesota.

For comparison, Italy has already passed a very apparent peak in deaths per day.

This graph created by Worldometer shows a clear peak in Italian COVID-19-related deaths at the end of March.


Kyle Hooten

Kyle Hooten is Managing Editor of Alpha News. His coverage of Minneapolis has been featured on television shows like Tucker Carlson Tonight and in print media outlets like the Wall Street Journal.