Will he or won’t he?
As Labor Day and the Minnesota State Fair have come and gone, Gov. Tim Walz has yet to announce whether he will run for an unprecedented third consecutive term as Minnesota’s governor.
Former governor Tim Pawlenty, another member of the two-term governor’s club, weighed in on Walz’s reelection chances during an appearance at the state fair.
Pawlenty’s conclusion? Walz could have a difficult time earning another four years.
“I think unlike the U.S. Senate, where you can stay forever if you’re blue in a blue state or red in a red state, governor has a shelf life for a variety of reasons,” Pawlenty told WCCO radio host Chad Hartman. “You’re an executive. You make tough decisions every week. You’re in the news, good or bad, every week.”
“These senators and members of Congress disappear for six months at a time and they selectively pop up, usually when they identify something they want to be in the news for positively,” said Pawlenty. “But the governors get chewed up more because you’re a decision maker. You’re an action creator. You gotta have a vision and agenda. You’ve got the bully pulpit. You’re here full-time in Minnesota.”
“And so, I think that’s part of the reason you have a shelf life, and I think Minnesotans look at the governor and say, at least two consecutive terms, there’s a big chunk of people who say, ‘that’s enough,’ regardless of whether you’re a Republican or Democrat.”
“And so, that little piece of the pie could be a big deal if you are trying to win reelection and even 15 percent of the people say ‘Hey, I like you, but, it’s time to go,’” concluded the former governor.
Pawlenty evaluates Republican gubernatorial candidates
Hartman also asked Pawlenty to weigh in on the field of GOP candidates for governor who include Scott Jensen, Kendall Qualls and Kristin Robbins.
“I know ’em all, I like ’em all,” Pawlenty responded. “I think they could all be potentially viable candidates, but I’ll highlight two for the reason that they didn’t run before and they’re a new face on the scene.”
“One is Kristin Robbins. She’s served in the legislature, but this would be her first step onto the statewide stage.”
Pawlenty continued, saying, “The other is a possible candidate named Chris Madel, who’s a lawyer, I don’t know him well. But people think he’s a strong communicator. So we’ll see. Those two stand out just because they’re not reprocessed in the system.”
Hartman then added, “I think I’ll join in the crowd that if Lisa Demuth jumped in, she looks like an impressive candidate to me. Do you know her well?”
Pawlenty said, “I know her well and I like her a lot, and she’d be a great candidate if she wanted to get in the race.”
“Here you have the first Black Republican woman speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives in history,” he added. “She’s also an extraordinarily capable and likable person and she’s got government management or leadership experience. So that’s a nice bunch of skills and experiences to have if you’re going to run for governor.”
Can a Republican win the Minnesota governor’s race?
With Pawlenty’s distinction as the last Republican to win a statewide election in Minnesota – nearly 20 years ago – the former governor also discussed what kind of Republican can win in 2026.
According to Pawlenty, a Republican who can win will be someone who can achieve the balancing act of being “MAGA enough to keep the Republicans in the fold and excited about your candidacy without being so MAGA that you turn off the independents and the soft Democrats that you need to win.”
“Whoever can do that has a real chance,” he said. “And by the way, Gov. Walz, if he does run for re-election, his numbers have softened. He still would be a compelling or strong candidate, but he’d certainly be more vulnerable.”
Hank Long
Hank Long is a journalism and communications professional whose writing career includes coverage of the Minnesota legislature, city and county governments and the commercial real estate industry. Hank received his undergraduate degree at the University of Minnesota, where he studied journalism, and his law degree at the University of St. Thomas. The Minnesota native lives in the Twin Cities with his wife and four children. His dream is to be around when the Vikings win the Super Bowl.
