Poll shows potentially close race between Ilhan Omar and Don Samuels

Samuels said the poll "supports what we already know: We can beat Rep. Ilhan Omar."

Democratic congressional candidate Don Samuels is in a potentially tight race against Congresswoman Ilhan Omar. (Don Samuels for Congress/Shutterstock)

Democratic congressional candidate Don Samuels is in a potentially tight race against Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, according to a new poll released by his campaign. Running in Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District, Samuels is challenging Rep. Omar for the district’s Democratic nomination.

In the new poll, when likely Democratic primary voters were initially asked about their preferences between Omar and Samuels, 49% said Omar, 30% said Samuels, and 21% said Undecided. However, the same poll found that the margin shifted to a tie between the two candidates (41% – 41%) after those same voters heard Samuels’ message of being “a progressive and pragmatic alternative to Rep. Omar without the divisive comments and history of taking unpopular votes.”

Speaking about his campaign to win a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, Samuels said “this poll supports what we already know: We can beat Rep. Ilhan Omar.”

The poll was conducted in late February via 519 telephone interviews. Produced by Victoria Research, the poll has a 4.4% margin of error. Victoria Research is a polling organization that operates just outside of Washington, D.C. According to their website, the polling firm has done work for various Democratic members of Congress, statewide candidates, and other office seekers.

According to Samuels’ campaign, the poll also “shows Omar enjoys less than 50% support for reelection from her Democratic primary base.” Needless to say, the Samuels team believes their candidate has an opening to win the 2024 Democratic primary election for the district.

“These results outline Rep. Omar’s vulnerability with her Democratic base in the Fifth Congressional District,” said Samuels’ campaign manager, Joe Radinovich. “Her job approval and favorability lag far behind fellow Democratic elected officials such as Gov Walz, Senators Smith and Klobuchar, and President Biden by up to 25 points with district voters.”

Samuels is currently in his second congressional contest against Omar. Having previously lost the Democratic nomination to Congresswoman Omar in 2022 by just two points, Samuels is a former member of the Minneapolis City Council who has spent several years in left-wing politics.

Speaking to the veracity of the most recent poll, the Samuels campaign said Victoria Research “correctly predicted” the results of the 2022 primary election between Samuels and Omar within 3%.

Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District includes Minneapolis, Richfield, St. Louis Park, New Hope, Crystal, Robbinsdale, Golden Valley, Brooklyn Center, Fridley, St. Anthony, Columbia Heights, Spring Lake Park, and parts of Edina.

In his campaign against Rep. Omar, Samuels is seeking “to reject today’s performative and self-serving politics for the sake of progress.” Additionally, the candidate says the residents of the Fifth District “are ready for a new representative in Washington who will make a difference, not just a point.”

Due to the left-wing persuasion of the district, whoever wins the Democratic nomination for the Fifth District will almost certainly win the November general election and serve in the U.S. House of Representatives. As such, the August primary election will likely decide whether Samuels or Omar represents over 660,000 Minnesotans in Congress.

However, Minnesota conducts primaries using an open primary system. As such, the scant number of independents and Republicans who live in the Fifth District could choose to vote in the August Democratic primary election for either Samuels or Omar. Given Samuels and Omar were separated by less than 2,500 votes in 2022, any outside influence from independents and Republicans could dramatically shake up the race.

Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District is the most left-wing district in the state, and one of the most left-wing U.S. House districts in the entire country.


Luke Sprinkel

Luke Sprinkel previously worked as a Legislative Assistant at the Minnesota House of Representatives. He grew up as a Missionary Kid (MK) living in England, Thailand, Tanzania, and the Middle East. Luke graduated from Regent University in 2018.