Silver’s model predicts win for Trump in 2024 presidential election

Silver said he doesn't want Trump to be president and doesn't plan to vote for Trump.


(The Center Square) — Statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that the 2024 presidential election wasn’t a toss up, but rather the contest favored former President Donald Trump over incumbent Joe Biden.

Silver, who made his name at the New York Times and later poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, said the model he built suggests Trump has an edge over Biden, even though Silver said he doesn’t want Trump to be president and doesn’t plan to vote for Trump.

“I think it’s important to be up front, because I’ve been rather lucky in one sense in my election forecasting career,” he wrote in a Silver Bulletin post. “I began making election forecasts in 2008, and in literally every presidential year since then, I haven’t really had to deal with a conflict between what I personally wanted to see happen and what my forecast said. This year, I do have that conflict. The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden).”

Silver’s model comes the day before the first presidential debate. Jake Tapper and Dana Bash of CNN will host the debate, which is expected to last 90 minutes. There will be no live audience, the first time in decades.


Brett Rowland