State Revenue Shortfall Widens With Weak May

From April to May the gap between real income and forecasts had doubled.

ST. PAUL, Minn. – A new report for the May net revenues of Minnesota shows that the state is underperforming estimates that were revised upward in February.

The Minnesota Department of Management and Budget (MMB) stated that net general fund revenues for the month of May totaled $1.466 billion. This is $63 million or 4.1 percent less than estimated.

Individual income tax receipts were $117 million below forecasts, dragging down greater than expected sales taxes, corporate taxes, and other receipts.

This is the second consecutive month that revenues have failed to meet the new expectations of the February Budget and Economic Forecast report by MMB. In that report the fiscal year 2016-17 total general fund revenues forecast was raised by $75 million to $42.435 billion. The individual income tax revenues forecast was increased by $133 million, while sales tax, property tax, and other tax revenues saw their forecasts reduced.

In February and March combined the state totaled $23 million, or 0.9 percent, more in revenue than the revised forecast predicted.

Starting with April however the state has slid back down to below projected revenue levels, with the supposedly stronger income tax levels bringing down greater than expected corporate taxes. In total, net general fund revenues totaled $2.419 billion in April, 3.4 percent or $86 million below expectations.

April is the month when the most people file their taxes, and income taxes in this month were $161 million below forecasts, while corporate taxes were $75 million above forecasts.

In the fiscal year through April, the state was $62 million in the hole, 0.4 percent below total forecasts.

Now through May, net individual income tax collections are $235 million below forecasts. In whole this year the state has collected $18.328 billion. The shortfall has more than doubled, and now totals $126 million or 0.7 percent below expectations.

Anders Koskinen