According to newly released estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota’s population growth continues to be slower than most other states.
The 2023 estimated population of the United States is 334,914,895; Minnesota’s estimated population is 5,737,915. Minnesota currently ranks 22nd amongst the 50 states for population count.
According to the same estimates, the United States has grown by 3,449,947 people since the 2020 census; a 1% increase. During that same time period, Minnesota grew by 31,111 people; a .5% increase.
For comparison, Idaho has grown by 6.8%, Montana has grown by 4.5%, Florida has grown by 5%, Arizona has grown by 3.8%, Nevada has grown by 2.9%, North Carolina has grown by 3.8%, South Dakota has grown by 3.7%, and Washington has grown by 1.4%.
In total, 27 states have grown faster than Minnesota since the 2020 census.
As a result, Minnesota may lose a congressional seat after the 2030 U.S. census, according to an analysis from the Brennen Center for Justice.
The Brennen Center, a self-described “nonpartisan law and policy institute,” took the 2023 population estimates and ran projections for congressional representation after the 2030 census. If current population trends continue, the Brennen Center projects that Minnesota will lose one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2030; Minnesota currently has eight seats.
A map of the 2030 reapportionment based on new population estimates released today by the Census Bureau. pic.twitter.com/LMhFuchC8O
— Michael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli) December 19, 2023
However, Minnesota is not the only state that could lose congressional representation. California, Illinois, New York, Oregon, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania are on track to lose one or more U.S. House seats, according to the Brennen Center’s projections.
Conversely, Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Utah, Idaho, South Carolina, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia are on pace to gain one or more seats.
Since electoral votes are based on congressional representation, these projections, should they become realized, would also significantly influence future presidential elections.
The new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau also offered updated statistics on migration to and from Minnesota.
From April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023, Minnesota saw a net loss of 45,976 people to domestic migration (people who are leaving Minnesota for other states). At the same time, Minnesota saw a net increase of 34,624 people from international migration (this number does include U.S. citizens returning from abroad).
Luke Sprinkel
Luke Sprinkel previously worked as a Legislative Assistant at the Minnesota House of Representatives. He grew up as a Missionary Kid (MK) living in England, Thailand, Tanzania, and the Middle East. Luke graduated from Regent University in 2018.
