As the 2022 midterm elections draw near, data continues to show that a Minnesota congresswoman occupying a crucial seat for the Democratic Party may be in danger of losing.
Angie Craig currently represents Minnesota’s Second Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives. In the 2020 election she narrowly defeated Republican challenger Tyler Kistner — by only 10,000 votes out of a total 424,512 cast.
But low approval ratings for President Joe Biden and persistent inflation mean voters in the Second Congressional District could turn the tables in 2022.
According to polling data obtained by Politico, Biden’s approval rating in Craig’s district sits at just 41%, with a disapproval rating of 58%.
Further polling data obtained by Alpha News shows Republicans leading Democrats by 2 percentage points on a generic congressional ballot. And even though Kistner himself — running against Craig yet again — is behind the incumbent by five points, 15% of voters are still undecided, and only a quarter of all undecided voters say they lean towards Craig.
Craig’s district comprises the four counties of Scott, Dakota, Goodhue, and Wabasha, as well as portions of Rice and Washington. The key county in the district is Dakota, which is the third-most populous county in the state behind Hennepin and Ramsey counties.
Dakota County is also one of the most politically divided counties in the U.S. In fact, Politico has identified it as one of 20 counties that will help decide whether or not Republicans are able to wrestle control of Congress from the Democrats.
“Dakota County is essentially split down the middle: The farmland in the southern part trends red while the north has become dependably Democratic,” Politico says. “The city of Lakeville at the county’s center, however, remains staunchly divided — and the way those voters swing will influence a key House race this year.”
Democrats maintain just a nine-seat advantage over Republicans in the U.S. House, 220 to 211. There are no independent representatives and four total vacancies, including the seat that belonged to the late Jim Hagedorn, a Republican who represented Minnesota’s First Congressional District before his death in February.