Trafalgar Group chief strategist Robert Cahaly joined Liz Collin on her podcast to discuss the results of a new poll that found Dr. Scott Jensen narrowly leading Gov. Tim Walz in Minnesota.
In fact, three of four Republicans lead in the statewide races, according to the latest Alpha News/Trafalgar Group poll.
Since last month’s poll, Jensen has climbed from a 2.7-point deficit to a half-point lead. In both polls, Walz has been under 50%.
“Anytime you see an incumbent under 50, which he was last time, you realize that there is a certain degree of the people who have decided they’re not for the incumbent,” Cahaly explained.
Attorney General Keith Ellison is widely considered the most vulnerable incumbent and now trails his opponent, Jim Schultz, by nearly 5 points.
“Ellison has a combination of things working against him,” Cahaly said. He said Ellison has become the “poster child” for the defund-the-police movement in Minnesota and “barely escaped” the abuse allegations made against him in 2018.
Kim Crockett, Republican candidate for secretary of state, is down by 2 points to incumbent Steve Simon.
“There is a level of Republican enthusiasm that has just not been extended to [Crockett] yet. Some of those Republicans on the periphery haven’t bought into supporting her yet,” Cahaly said.
Cahaly thinks there is a “real possibility” that Republicans can pick up three statewide wins, if not four.
While the media continues to focus on abortion, Minnesotans ranked inflation and crime as their top two issues.
“When someone is worried about going to a convenience store past dark, when they’re worried about their children and grandchildren overdosing on fentanyl that came across the border, abortion doesn’t compete with that,” Cahaly explained.
“Somehow the White House is completely out of sync with what the average person really wants,” he added.
Cahaly also noted that young people seem to be leaning toward Republicans more so than in the past — for the sole reason that Democrats are not giving them what they want, in his opinion.
“The Republicans haven’t earned their votes; the Democrats have lost their votes, and the Republicans will have a chance to keep them if they don’t take them for granted,” he explained.
The Trafalgar Group was the only pollster to successfully predict Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential win.
“We’re kind of known as the polling industry disrupter,” Cahaly said. “They don’t like us very much. Most of the mainstream media, pollsters especially, constantly attack us. But it’s fun when you get attacked from people whose error rate is much higher than yours. Over the last three cycles, we have the lowest error rate of any nationwide firm.”